How many covid cases are in the hospital?

AVV reports, “As of yesterday there were three hospitalized COVID cases; two were un-vaccinated and one was there for a procedure and was found to be COVID positive.”

So, only two un-vaccinated china flu cases. What happened to the hospital was over running with un-vaxxed china flu patients?

1 Like

Interesting thread on AVV Facebook about new Covid announcement:

Brian Behn
Hello, while we agree with the many of the sentiments expressed in this message, it was not written, authorized or sent by Chaffee County EMS.

Penni Evans
who sent it? CC Health? I received two emails and a phone call so it was sent out via the emergency response notification system

Brian Behn
I do not know. I just know Chaffee County EMS did not.

Penni Evans
it was the emergency notification system and it mentions overwhelmed EMS due to Covid

Brian Behn
Okay maybe it said that, but as the operations manager at Chaffee County EMS I can tell you we did not compose or send any such message.

Penni Evans
not a problem, they are putting it out there that you guys are stretched out to the max with illness and overwhelming work. not a slam on any of you - you are all terrific and I so appreciate you.

Interesting. EMS doesn’t know it’s overwhelmed with Covid, but the reverse 911 says it is. Nobody asked them.

I haven’t tried it, but I’m told… If you are not receiving reverse 911 messages from the Chaffee County Sheriff’s Department – follow this link Everbridge - Chaffee County Sheriff ( and sign up.

1 Like

Thanks for the heads up re: receipt of reverse 911 because we didn’t get a call. Have gotten them before and wondered now what if there had been an ACTUAL EMERGENCY!!! They’re getting pretty desperate with their fear campaign.

btw - I believe the Sheriff initiates the 911 calls and in this case would it be at an order from the Public Health officer? I just received a notice that a group I belong to is cancelling a scheduled meeting this month supposedly based on THAT CALL!!! What do you think about that?

The 9-11 alert put out last weekend by the county’s Everbridge warning system was put out by Chaffee County Public Health: “Last week we pushed out an Everbirdge message on Fri. and Sat. to protect our hospital services and essential medical services from being overwhelmed,” confirmed Chaffee County Public Health Director Andrea Carlstrom.

The emergency notification said that EMS was overwhelmed by the China flu. However, now they say it was to prevent the EMS from being overwhelmed. When will the lying end?

Here are the Dashboard stats from the 1/14/22 Mountain Mail:

Chaffee Covid-10 stats:
7-day case count: 302
14-day case count: 457
Positivity rate: n/a
Hospitalizations: 3
Pandemic Total: 2,951
Deaths due to Covid-19: 29
Vaccines administered: 33,384
Full immunization rate: 73.8%

Additional data from the State of Colorado Covid-19 dashboard:

Chaffee County one-week cumulative incidence: 1,922
Chaffee County one-week cumulative incidence: 25.77%

Chaffee County two-week average positivity rate: 27.6


Cases have doubled in the last week, but hospitalization is still less than 1% of total reported cases.
Positivity rate increased from 7.07% on 1/7/22 to 27.6% on 1/14/22

Published reports say 60-80% of Omicron cases are asymptomatic
Published reports say only 40% of symptomatic people report to public health

This would mean that instead of the 302 reported cases, there are:
an additional 755 symptomatic unreported cases
an additional 1133 asymptomatic cases
this calculates to 1888 total cases in Chaffee County in the last week
and approximately 3000 total cases in the last two weeks.

Even if this rate of Omicron infection continues, after 2-3 weeks, there should be a precipitous drop in infection. Chaffee County only has 20,000 people. In 2-3 weeks, there will be nobody left to infect!

We should also be heartened that with 3000 estimated cases in the last two weeks, there only 3 hospitalizations. As always, they do not tell us whether these 3 are in the hospital with Covid or from Covid. In any case, 3/3000 is a 1 in 1000 chance of hospitalization from Omicron using the assumptions above. Delta is also still circulating, so it is also possible that some of the hospitalized are from Delta.

Take home lesson: Omicron is not causing much hospitalization, and is blowing through the population very quickly, as anticipated. People will continue to get sick, but many are asymptomatic. In 2-3 weeks, everything should be back to near normal. Whatever normal is.

These are my own calculations, but I thought people would find it interesting.

1 Like

Thanks for providing some perspective on the stats.

It was sent from the CC Sheriff’s office.

1 Like

Fascinating analysis.

Postulates Omicron is relatively harmless but will provide broad immunity against future versions of Covid.

Update on COVID statistics in Chaffee County, 20 days after previos analysislater

Over 20 days, the 7-day case count has dropped from 302 to 137.

Nearly everyone susceptible to infection has been infected, so cases are rapidly declining.

The worst is over with omicron. No recent deaths, and only 1 current hospitalization.

Let’s hope we can get back to normal!

1 Like